Chapter 4 Propositions to frame uncertainty

When applying probability theory in the context of a legal case, it is important that the hypotheses from both sides of counsel are made precise. This is because they will be used to compare against each other as conditioning information in conditional probabilities. Innocent mistakes in proposing imprecise conditioning information can have large effects on the resulting value of the conditional probability. More importantly, such mistakes can lead to incorrect interpretations of conditional probabilities, such as incorrect beliefs about which events may have occurred and which did not.

In this chapter, we will define what is meant by a proposition, how propositions are useful for framing uncertainty about events, and how propositions are combined with probability to determine the probative value of evidence.