Probability, statistics, and the likelihood ratio for non-experts [draft]
Preface
Why this book?
Who this is for
How to contribute
Participate in our research studies
Email
Github
Acknowledgements
Funders
Contributors
Software
Updates and versions
About this version (version 1.0)
Planned versions
Update history
Future content
1
Introduction
2
Uncertainty
2.1
What we mean by
uncertainty
2.2
Types of uncertainty
2.3
Uncertainty in scientific evidence
2.4
Example: fibre interpretation
2.5
Drag and Drop: uncertainty
2.6
Communicating uncertainty
2.7
Summary: uncertainty
3
Probability to describe uncertainty
3.1
Quantifying uncertainty
3.2
Example: coin toss
3.3
Interactive coin toss
3.4
Personal probabilities
3.5
Conditioning on information
3.6
Conditioning on the past and future
3.7
Example: double coin toss
3.8
Interactive double coin toss
3.9
Example: coin toss game
3.10
Odds
3.11
Bayes’ rule
3.12
Example: guessing coin 1
3.13
Coin guess without Bayes’ rule
3.14
Coin guess using Bayes’ rule
3.15
Reliable probabilities
3.16
Base rates and error rates
3.17
Example: diagnostic tests
3.18
Interactive disease testing
3.19
Example: doping
3.20
Interactive doping
3.21
Summary: probability
3.22
More information
4
Propositions to frame uncertainty
4.1
Facts-in-issue
4.2
Propositions
4.3
Competing propositions
4.4
Case scenario: forming propositions
4.5
Proposition properties
4.6
Example: exhaustivity and mutual exclusivity
4.7
Hierarchy of propositions
4.8
Offense level propositions
4.9
Activity level propositions
4.10
Source level propositions
4.11
Sub-source level propositions
4.12
Example: proposition levels
4.13
Probative value of evidence
4.14
Example: probative value
4.15
Changing propositions
4.16
Probabilities for propositions
4.17
Summary: propositions
5
Likelihood ratio to evaluate uncertainty
5.1
Relative support for competing propositions
5.2
Quantifying probative value
5.3
LR calculator
5.4
Example: DNA match
5.5
DNA match LR
5.6
Updating odds
5.7
Example: doping (revisited)
5.8
Doping LR
5.9
Doping posterior odds
5.10
Interactive doping LR
5.11
Combining evidence
5.12
Serial evidence schemes
5.13
Parallel evidence schemes
5.14
Robustness
5.15
Communication
5.16
Summary: likelihood ratio
References
Copyright © 2020-2021 LRCFS
Probability, statistics, and the likelihood ratio for non-experts [1st Edition]
4.17
Summary: propositions
Use the activity below to create a summary of the key points from this chapter.